Whitepaper · v0.1 · Draft
OFT: Odds Fungible Tokens
NFT-bound binary prediction markets, priced by an on-chain LMSR AMM, settled in native ETH on Robinhood Chain.
Version v0.1
Status Live · Mainnet
Network Robinhood Chain · 4663
Updated Jul 2026
OFT turns prediction markets into NFTs. Every market is a single NFT — mint it, set the question and resolution rules, and every trading fee generated by that market flows to the NFT holder for as long as the market lives. No smart contracts to deploy. No listing fees. No revenue share with a central platform. Whoever holds the NFT is the market maker.
Pump.fun proved that permissionless coin creation is a $10B+ market. OFT does the same for prediction markets — except the market itself is the asset, and the revenue Polymarket would have captured belongs to whoever holds the NFT.
1 · Abstract
OFT collapses two familiar primitives into one asset: an NFT and a prediction market are the same object. Each token in the collection is a binary YES/NO market on any real-world outcome its owner chooses. Prices are set by a Logarithmic Market Scoring Rule (LMSR) automated market maker running fully on-chain. Markets self-settle through Chainlink price feeds or an optimistic assertion window. The NFT owner earns a permanent 1% of every trade, forever.
“If you're a builder looking to embed stock tokens or RWA into your applications, we want to hear from you.”
OFT is a direct answer to that call. Every OFT market is a real-world outcome tokenized as a tradeable on-chain asset — the RWA primitive, embedded natively on Robinhood Chain. Full context in §9 · Alignment with Robinhood Chain.
2 · The primitive: NFT as market
OFT introduces a first-of-its-kind primitive: an NFT that is itself a live, tradeable prediction market. In existing prediction-market designs, the market is an ephemeral contract deployed for a single question and abandoned after resolution. OFT flips this: the market is a persistent, transferable NFT. Ownership carries the right to set the next question, choose the resolution source, and collect the maker fee. When the NFT sells, the market it represents moves with it — the buyer inherits an on-chain track record.
The mental model is Polymarket × Pump.fun on Robinhood Chain. Polymarket contributes the binary prediction-market mechanics; Pump.fun contributes the permissionless, anyone-can-launch distribution model. The twist: on Pump.fun the launched object is a memecoin that others speculate on, whereas on OFT the launched object is the market itself, and its creator collects the trading fees rather than merely holding a coin.
This creates a secondary market for market-makers: an NFT that has hosted popular, high-volume markets becomes strictly more valuable than a dormant one, because the fee stream compounds.
3 · LMSR pricing on-chain
Each market uses Hanson's Logarithmic Market Scoring Rule with a liquidity parameter b. The cost function is:
C(q_Y, q_N) = b · ln(exp(q_Y / b) + exp(q_N / b))
Prices for YES and NO are the partial derivatives:
P_YES = exp(q_Y / b) / (exp(q_Y / b) + exp(q_N / b))
P_NO = 1 − P_YES
Prices always sum to exactly 1 ETH per pair of shares. The cost of any trade is the difference in the cost function before and after the trade — no slippage surprises, no impermanent-loss weirdness. Larger b = more liquidity, tighter spreads, but higher seed cost for the owner (roughly b·ln 2 ETH).
4 · Market lifecycle
- Question set. Owner calls
setQuestion(tokenId, question, resolutionSource). Once set, the market moves from Unset to Open.
- Trading. Anyone can buy YES or NO with native ETH. LMSR prices update per trade.
- Lock. 24 hours before end-of-month UTC (or on NFT transfer — a hook auto-locks and enables refunds).
- Resolve. Chainlink feed reads or optimistic-oracle challenge window expires (tiered 2h / 6h / 24h by cycle volume).
- Redeem. Winning shares pay 1 ETH each. Invalid markets refund cost basis.
5 · Resolution: Chainlink + optimistic
Two resolution modes, chosen at question-set:
- Chainlink price feed. Deterministic settlement against a specified feed at a specified block. No dispute possible — the feed is truth. Best for "BTC > $X on date Y" style markets.
- Optimistic assertion. Anyone posts a bond claiming the outcome. If unchallenged during the window, it settles as claimed. Challenges escalate to admin arbitration in v0.1 and to a bonded juror pool in a future release.
6 · Fees and owner revenue
| Owner fee (permanent) | 1.00% |
| Treasury fee | 0.50% |
| Marketplace fee (secondary NFT sale) | 2.00% |
| Total taker fee per trade | 1.50% |
The 1% owner fee accrues to whoever holds the NFT at the moment of the trade. NFT sale on the marketplace transfers the future fee stream to the buyer instantly.
7 · Token supply and tiers
The collection is uncapped. The initial Gold tier is fixed at 50 tokens (#1–#50), minted to the founder at deploy. From #51 onward the Silver tier is permissionless: any wallet can mint its own market NFT directly from the contract, free (gas only), one per wallet. Supply grows the way a token launcher grows — organically, driven by demand, with no ceiling.
| Tier | IDs | Supply | Mint |
|---|
| Gold | 1–50 | 50 | Founder tier, minted at deploy |
| Silver | 51+ | Uncapped | Permissionless · free · 1 per wallet |
Public mint is enforced on-chain via publicMint(): it reverts with AlreadyMinted if the caller already holds a self-minted token, and with PublicMintDisabled until the owner opens it. Owner batch mints (the Gold drop) are separate and do not consume a wallet's public-mint allowance.
7b · Launch mechanic: one market, no clones
OFT borrows the permissionless-launch model from token launchers but removes the failure mode that plagues them. On a typical launcher, the same idea is cloned hundreds of times, liquidity is fragmented, and creators vampire-attack each other by copying a popular launch to siphon its volume. OFT prevents this by design:
- One NFT, one market. Each token id is a single, distinct market. There is no shared pool to fork and no way to mint a duplicate of an existing market's identity.
- No PvP over the same market. Because a market lives inside exactly one NFT, its fee stream cannot be split or drained by a copycat. The holder is the sole maker.
- No vamping. There is no incentive to clone — cloning would just create a separate, empty market with none of the original's liquidity or track record.
The result is a permissionless launch surface with token-launcher distribution but without the copy-paste liquidity wars: mint your NFT, set your question, and own that market outright.
8 · Contract addresses
Robinhood Chain mainnet · chainId 4663 · RPC https://rpc.mainnet.chain.robinhood.com
Mainnet addresses will be listed here after the mainnet deploy on Robinhood Chain.
9 · Alignment with Robinhood Chain
Robinhood Chain is an Arbitrum Orbit L2 built by Robinhood, purpose-designed as a settlement layer for tokenized real-world assets — stock tokens, structured products, and other on-chain wrappers around off-chain outcomes. On July 14, 2026, Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev publicly invited builders to embed stock tokens and RWA primitives into their applications.
OFT was built for exactly that surface. A prediction market is an RWA primitive — it tokenizes the resolution of a real-world event as a tradeable asset with a clean payout schedule. By making every market an NFT with a permanent fee stream, OFT gives builders and traders a composable, transferable, native-ETH-denominated wrapper around any outcome they can define. That is what it means to be aligned with Robinhood Chain: not a marketing partnership, but a matching primitive.
11 · Disclaimer
This whitepaper describes software currently deployed to mainnet. It is not a solicitation, offer, or promise of financial return. Predictions markets carry risk; participants should only trade what they can afford to lose. Test-suite results are available on request; independent audit is recommended before any mainnet deployment.
