Robinhood Chain · LMSR · Native ETH

Each NFT is its own market.

There are 50 NFTs. Each one is its own prediction market — the owner sets a YES/NO question, anyone can trade on it, and the owner earns 1% of every trade for life. Scroll down to see all 50 below.

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Owner Cycle Locks
YES
NO
Liquidity b
YES shares outstanding
NO shares outstanding
Pool collateral
Volume (this cycle)
Owner fee1.00%
Treasury fee0.50%
State
Resolution

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NFT Marketplace · Native ETH

Buy & sell OFT markets.

Each NFT is a live prediction market. Owners collect 1% of every trade on their market forever. List, buy, and cancel with EIP-712 signed orders — no gas until the trade fills. Marketplace fee is 2% of the sale price.

Listed
Floor · ETH
Volume · ETH
2%Fee
All NFTs
Whitepaper · v0.1 · Draft

OFT: Odds Fungible Tokens

NFT-bound binary prediction markets, priced by an on-chain LMSR AMM, settled in native ETH on Robinhood Chain.

Version v0.1 Status Draft · Testnet Network Robinhood Chain · 46630 Updated Jul 2026

1 · Abstract

OFT collapses two familiar primitives into one asset: an NFT and a prediction market are the same object. Each token in the collection is a binary YES/NO market on any real-world outcome its owner chooses. Prices are set by a Logarithmic Market Scoring Rule (LMSR) automated market maker running fully on-chain. Markets self-settle through Chainlink price feeds or an optimistic assertion window. The NFT owner earns a permanent 1% of every trade, forever.

“If you're a builder looking to embed stock tokens or RWA into your applications, we want to hear from you.”

Vlad Tenev, CEO of Robinhood · Jul 14, 2026

OFT is a direct answer to that call. Every OFT market is a real-world outcome tokenized as a tradeable on-chain asset — the RWA primitive, embedded natively on Robinhood Chain. Full context in §9 · Alignment with Robinhood Chain.

2 · The primitive: NFT as market

In existing prediction-market designs, the market is an ephemeral contract deployed for a single question and abandoned after resolution. OFT flips this: the market is a persistent, transferable NFT. Ownership carries the right to set the next question, choose the resolution source, and collect the maker fee. When the NFT sells, the market it represents moves with it — the buyer inherits an on-chain track record.

This creates a secondary market for market-makers: an NFT that has hosted popular, high-volume markets becomes strictly more valuable than a dormant one, because the fee stream compounds.

3 · LMSR pricing on-chain

Each market uses Hanson's Logarithmic Market Scoring Rule with a liquidity parameter b. The cost function is:

C(q_Y, q_N) = b · ln(exp(q_Y / b) + exp(q_N / b))

Prices for YES and NO are the partial derivatives:

P_YES = exp(q_Y / b) / (exp(q_Y / b) + exp(q_N / b))
P_NO  = 1 − P_YES

Prices always sum to exactly 1 ETH per pair of shares. The cost of any trade is the difference in the cost function before and after the trade — no slippage surprises, no impermanent-loss weirdness. Larger b = more liquidity, tighter spreads, but higher seed cost for the owner (roughly b·ln 2 ETH).

4 · Market lifecycle

  1. Question set. Owner calls setQuestion(tokenId, question, resolutionSource). Once set, the market moves from Unset to Open.
  2. Trading. Anyone can buy YES or NO with native ETH. LMSR prices update per trade.
  3. Lock. 24 hours before end-of-month UTC (or on NFT transfer — a hook auto-locks and enables refunds).
  4. Resolve. Chainlink feed reads or optimistic-oracle challenge window expires (tiered 2h / 6h / 24h by cycle volume).
  5. Redeem. Winning shares pay 1 ETH each. Invalid markets refund cost basis.

5 · Resolution: Chainlink + optimistic

Two resolution modes, chosen at question-set:

  • Chainlink price feed. Deterministic settlement against a specified feed at a specified block. No dispute possible — the feed is truth. Best for "BTC > $X on date Y" style markets.
  • Optimistic assertion. Anyone posts a bond claiming the outcome. If unchallenged during the window, it settles as claimed. Challenges escalate to admin arbitration in v0.1 and to a bonded juror pool in a future release.

6 · Fees and owner revenue

Owner fee (permanent)1.00%
Treasury fee0.50%
Marketplace fee (secondary NFT sale)2.00%
Total taker fee per trade1.50%

The 1% owner fee accrues to whoever holds the NFT at the moment of the trade. NFT sale on the marketplace transfers the future fee stream to the buyer instantly.

7 · Token supply and tiers

The collection is uncapped, but the initial Gold tier is fixed at 50 tokens (#1–#50). Silver tier begins at #51 and mints on demand. Only Gold tokens exist at launch.

TierIDsSupplyNotes
Gold1–5050Founder tier, minted at deploy
Silver51+UncappedPublic mint, opens after Gold clearance

8 · Contract addresses

Robinhood Chain testnet · chainId 46630 · RPC https://rpc.testnet.chain.robinhood.com

OFTNft (ERC-721)
OFTMarkets (LMSR)
OFTMarket (NFT marketplace)
OFTRendererV1 (on-chain SVG)
Explorer explorer.testnet.chain.robinhood.com

Mainnet addresses will be listed here after the mainnet deploy on Robinhood Chain.

9 · Alignment with Robinhood Chain

Robinhood Chain is an Arbitrum Orbit L2 built by Robinhood, purpose-designed as a settlement layer for tokenized real-world assets — stock tokens, structured products, and other on-chain wrappers around off-chain outcomes. On July 14, 2026, Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev publicly invited builders to embed stock tokens and RWA primitives into their applications.

OFT was built for exactly that surface. A prediction market is an RWA primitive — it tokenizes the resolution of a real-world event as a tradeable asset with a clean payout schedule. By making every market an NFT with a permanent fee stream, OFT gives builders and traders a composable, transferable, native-ETH-denominated wrapper around any outcome they can define. That is what it means to be aligned with Robinhood Chain: not a marketing partnership, but a matching primitive.

11 · Disclaimer

This whitepaper describes software currently deployed to testnet. It is not a solicitation, offer, or promise of financial return. Predictions markets carry risk; participants should only trade what they can afford to lose. Test-suite results are available on request; independent audit is recommended before any mainnet deployment.

About OFT

OFT is a prediction-market protocol where every NFT is a market. Founder Gold tier (1-50), Silver tier from #51 onward. Runs on Robinhood Chain — an Arbitrum Orbit L2 — settled in native ETH.

How it works

  1. NFT owner sets a question. Any binary YES/NO — "Will BTC close above $150k on Aug 31?" — plus a resolution source (Chainlink price feed or optimistic assertion). Seeding the LMSR pool costs the owner ~b·ln2 ETH per market.
  2. Traders buy shares. An on-chain LMSR AMM prices YES + NO to sum to exactly 1.00 ETH. Slippage is bounded by b. Every buy skims 1% for the NFT owner and 0.5% for the treasury.
  3. Market locks. 24h before the end of the UTC month (or on NFT sale — a transfer hook auto-locks and enables refunds).
  4. Resolution. Price-feed markets auto-resolve from Chainlink. Assertion markets use an optimistic proposal → 2h/6h/24h challenge window (tier by volume) → settle. Disputes escalate to the admin.
  5. Redeem. Winning shares pay 1 ETH each. Invalid markets refund cost basis.

Contract addresses (Robinhood testnet · chainId 46630)

OFTNft
OFTMarkets
OFTRendererV1
RPChttps://rpc.testnet.chain.robinhood.com
Explorerexplorer.testnet.chain.robinhood.com

Audit status

The contracts pass 40 tests (LMSR properties + fuzz, ATK-01..17 adversarial suite, reentrancy, invariants across 8,192 randomized calls). The full test suite and contract source are available on request for review before any mainnet deployment.